Northern Ireland Emissions Gap
On current trends, NI will miss its legally binding 2030 target for reducing emissions.
Data: NAEI Devolved GHG Inventory 1990–2023
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Agriculture Change Since 1990
+8%
The largest rise of any sector
Share of NI Emissions
30.8%
2.5× the UK average of 12%
Cattle in Northern Ireland
1.67m
One animal for every 1.1 people
Emissions to Cut by 2030
4.4 million tonnes CO₂e
from 18.2 million tonnes to 13.8 million tonnes
NI Emissions by Sector, 1990–2023
01 / 9kt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
THE HEADLINE
Northern Ireland has cut greenhouse gas emissions by 31.5% since 1990, from 26.6 million tonnes to 18.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
That looks like meaningful progress, but not all sectors have reduced their emissions at the same rate.
NI Emissions by Sector, 1990–2023
02 / 9kt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
WHERE THE REDUCTION CAME FROM
Almost all of the reduction came from electricity. The conversion of Ballylumford and Coolkeeragh power stations from oil to gas, the growth of onshore wind under the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation, and the end of coal-fired generation at Kilroot in 2023 together drove a 60% reduction in the electricity sector since 1990.
The electricity transition has been important. But it was not something Stormont could easily repeat in other sectors. Northern Ireland also entered 1990 with less heavy industry than England or Scotland, meaning the one-time reductions other nations gained from closing coal mines and steelworks were never available here.
NI Emissions by Sector, 1990–2023
03 / 9kt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
THE EXCEPTION
Several sectors have reduced only modestly. Buildings has barely changed. Two sectors have gone in the wrong direction entirely.
Transport emissions have increased by around 5% since 1990. Agriculture has increased by 8%, reaching 5.6 million tonnes per year. Agriculture now accounts for 30.8% of everything Northern Ireland emits. The UK average is 12%.
UK Nations Comparison (1990 = 100)
04 / 9Index (1990=100) · Source: NAEI
Each nation starts at 100 in 1990. Above 100: emissions have risen. Below 100: emissions have fallen.
NORTHERN IRELAND IS THE OUTLIER
Every other UK nation has reduced agricultural emissions since 1990. England has reduced by 18%, Scotland by 13%, and Wales by 13%.
Northern Ireland is up 8%.
The other nations faced similar pressures and still reduced. Northern Ireland's agriculture is more heavily weighted toward livestock than any other UK nation, a consequence of its climate, soils, and land use. Livestock farming generates the emissions that matter here: methane from digestion, not combustion.
Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Composition
05 / 92023 NAEI · kt CO₂e by agricultural source
Enteric fermentation
3,507.1 kt CO₂e · 62.5%
Agricultural soils
905.1 kt CO₂e · 16.1%
Manure management
993.6 kt CO₂e · 17.7%
Agricultural combustion
209.1 kt CO₂e · 3.7%
2023 NAEI agricultural emissions grouped into enteric fermentation, agricultural soils, manure management, and agricultural combustion.
WHERE AGRICULTURE'S EMISSIONS COME FROM
The chart shows what drives NI's agricultural emissions. More than 60% comes from a single source: enteric fermentation, the methane produced in the digestive systems of cattle and sheep.
NI Emissions: Actuals & Projection to 2030
06 / 9Mt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
THE TARGET
The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 sets a legally binding target of a 48% reduction in total emissions by 2030.
That means cutting from 18.2 million tonnes to 13.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. To put that in context, it is roughly equal to Northern Ireland's entire annual output from transport.
NI Emissions: Actuals & Projection to 2030
07 / 9Mt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
THE GAP
On current trends, Northern Ireland will miss that target by approximately 1.73 million tonnes.
No current policy sets out a credible plan to close the gap.
DAERA vs CCC — Agriculture pathways (1990–2030)
08 / 9Mt CO₂e · Sources: NAEI (historical), DAERA Draft CAP / CCC (Table 21, rebased to NAEI 2023)
Methodology: Table 21 provides DAERA and CCC values to 2027; 2028–2030 are linear extrapolations from the 2023–2027 trend. Both projection series are rebased by the same offset to the NAEI 2023 actual (5.615 Mt), preserving each pathway's rate of change while keeping the gap between the trajectories consistent. DAERA's raw 2023 figure (6.03 Mt) reflects a different inventory basis (2022 data, AR4 GWP) than the NAEI series used here.
THE DRAFT PLAN
The Climate Change Committee advised that meeting the 2030 target requires a 22% reduction in dairy cattle numbers and 17% in beef cattle, compared to 2020 levels. Those figures come from the Committee's Stretch Ambition sectoral pathway modelling for Northern Ireland, set out in 'The path to a Net Zero Northern Ireland' (2023).
The draft Climate Action Plan takes a different approach. It proposes a 7% reduction in cattle numbers through productivity improvements, including faster slaughter ages and tighter calving intervals, while maintaining output. It does not explain how the remaining gap is closed.
How can we close the emissions gap?
WHAT COULD CHANGE THIS
Agriculture accounts for the largest share of Northern Ireland's emissions gap and is the hardest sector to close. Its emissions are largely biological rather than technological, as they come from what cattle eat and how manure decomposes, rather than from machinery that can be switched out.
The interventions exist: feed additives, slurry aeration, protected urea, peatland restoration, genetics programmes, herd reduction. Some are already in the draft plan at modest scale.
The scenario modeller below lets you test each intervention individually or combine them.
Open the scenario modeller ↓THE HEADLINE
Northern Ireland has cut greenhouse gas emissions by 31.5% since 1990, from 26.6 million tonnes to 18.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent.
That looks like meaningful progress, but not all sectors have reduced their emissions at the same rate.
WHERE THE REDUCTION CAME FROM
Almost all of the reduction came from electricity. The conversion of Ballylumford and Coolkeeragh power stations from oil to gas, the growth of onshore wind under the Northern Ireland Renewables Obligation, and the end of coal-fired generation at Kilroot in 2023 together drove a 60% reduction in the electricity sector since 1990.
The electricity transition has been important. But it was not something Stormont could easily repeat in other sectors. Northern Ireland also entered 1990 with less heavy industry than England or Scotland, meaning the one-time reductions other nations gained from closing coal mines and steelworks were never available here.
THE EXCEPTION
Several sectors have reduced only modestly. Buildings has barely changed. Two sectors have gone in the wrong direction entirely.
Transport emissions have increased by around 5% since 1990. Agriculture has increased by 8%, reaching 5.6 million tonnes per year. Agriculture now accounts for 30.8% of everything Northern Ireland emits. The UK average is 12%.
NORTHERN IRELAND IS THE OUTLIER
Every other UK nation has reduced agricultural emissions since 1990. England has reduced by 18%, Scotland by 13%, and Wales by 13%.
Northern Ireland is up 8%.
The other nations faced similar pressures and still reduced. Northern Ireland's agriculture is more heavily weighted toward livestock than any other UK nation, a consequence of its climate, soils, and land use. Livestock farming generates the emissions that matter here: methane from digestion, not combustion.
WHERE AGRICULTURE'S EMISSIONS COME FROM
The chart shows what drives NI's agricultural emissions. More than 60% comes from a single source: enteric fermentation, the methane produced in the digestive systems of cattle and sheep.
THE TARGET
The Climate Change Act (Northern Ireland) 2022 sets a legally binding target of a 48% reduction in total emissions by 2030.
That means cutting from 18.2 million tonnes to 13.8 million tonnes, a reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. To put that in context, it is roughly equal to Northern Ireland's entire annual output from transport.
THE GAP
On current trends, Northern Ireland will miss that target by approximately 1.73 million tonnes.
No current policy sets out a credible plan to close the gap.
THE DRAFT PLAN
The Climate Change Committee advised that meeting the 2030 target requires a 22% reduction in dairy cattle numbers and 17% in beef cattle, compared to 2020 levels. Those figures come from the Committee's Stretch Ambition sectoral pathway modelling for Northern Ireland, set out in 'The path to a Net Zero Northern Ireland' (2023).
The draft Climate Action Plan takes a different approach. It proposes a 7% reduction in cattle numbers through productivity improvements, including faster slaughter ages and tighter calving intervals, while maintaining output. It does not explain how the remaining gap is closed.
WHAT COULD CHANGE THIS
Agriculture accounts for the largest share of Northern Ireland's emissions gap and is the hardest sector to close. Its emissions are largely biological rather than technological, as they come from what cattle eat and how manure decomposes, rather than from machinery that can be switched out.
The interventions exist: feed additives, slurry aeration, protected urea, peatland restoration, genetics programmes, herd reduction. Some are already in the draft plan at modest scale.
The scenario modeller below lets you test each intervention individually or combine them.
Open the scenario modeller ↓NI Emissions by Sector, 1990–2023
kt CO₂e · Source: NAEI
What would it take
Adjust the interventions. Watch the trajectory change.
Several interventions could credibly reduce agricultural emissions before 2030. Bovaer requires near-universal uptake across dairy and beef herds. Slurry aeration requires capital grants that do not yet exist at scale. Protected urea requires changing entrenched fertiliser habits across thousands of farms. Peatland restoration requires taking land out of agricultural use. Genetics programmes take a generation of breeding to show results.
Current Projection
5,373 kt
Target
4,490 kt
Gap
883 kt
Includes 242 kt already committed under Draft CAP 2023–27 livestock productivity improvements. The remaining gap is 883 kt.
Committed: 242 kt · User: 0 kt · Remaining: 883 kt
Current interventions fall well short. Even the full government programme leaves a substantial gap without structural change to the herd.
Enteric emissions
up to 1,936 ktSlurry & soils
up to 261 ktLand use
up to 110 ktThe Arithmetic
Even at maximum adoption across every available productivity improvement measure, the gap to the 2030 CCC Stretch Ambition Target is not closed. Some reduction in cattle numbers is required regardless.
Technology-only scenarios depend on near-universal adoption across thousands of farms by 2030. Bovaer requires twice-daily concentrate delivery at 90% uptake. Slurry aeration requires capital grants that do not yet exist at scale. Protected urea requires changing fertiliser habits across the entire industry.
Since 1990, Northern Ireland's total emissions fell by nearly a third, but agriculture's share has grown. The modeller above shows what closing the gap requires. On current trends, agriculture will not fall fast enough to meet the 2030 target. With it accounting for 30.8% of all emissions, the legally binding target cannot be met unless the rate of reduction accelerates significantly. The draft Climate Action Plan does not say how it will.